Londonda asoslangan tadqiqot instituti xulosasiga ko’ra, Afg’oniston hukumati 2015-yilga borib mamlakatni mustaqil boshqarishga tayyor bo’ladi. Ammo xalqaro hamjamiyat moliyaviy, harbiy va diplomatik yordamni ayamasligi darkor.
Xalqaro koalitsiya Afg’onistonni sekin-asta tark etyapti, ammo mamlakatda har kuni bir qonli voqea…
Hamid Karzay hukumati kezi kelganda ishni eplay oladimi? Xavfsizlikni ta’minlashga, isyonchi guruhlar bilan til topishishga qurbi yetadimi?
“Ha”, deya javob beradi Strategik tadqiqotlar xalqaro instituti olimlari, o’z izlanish natijalariga asoslanib.
Ammo, deyiladi 300 sahifali kitobda, G’arb davlatlari Afg’onistonni 2014-yildan keyin ham harbiy va moliyaviy jihatdan qo’llab-quvvatlashi kerak. Asar muharriri Tobi Doj fikricha, mazkur shart bajarilsa afg’onlar o’zini eplab ketadi.
“Kitobning mazmuni shundan iboratki, sekin-asta kuchga to’lib borayotgan markaziy hukumat nazoratni qo’lga olishiga ishonsa bo’ladi”, - deydi u.
Ittifoqchilardan talab qilinadigani - afg’on hukumatiga tayanch bo’lish. Diplomatik, iqtisodiy va harbiy ko’makka tayyor turish. 2014-yildan keyin ham Afg’onistonga chet ellik instruktorlar kerak, deydi mualliflardan biri, kitobning mudofaa haqidagi qismini yozgan Ben Berri.
Afg’onistonda chet ellik zobitlardan iborat garnizon qolishi maqsadga muvofiq. Masalan, razvedka sohasida yordamlashish uchun. Ayrim davlatlar maxsus kuchlarini qoldirishga qaror qilsa ham ajabmas”.
"Lekin, deydi olim, afg’onlarning fikrini o’rganib, keyin bir qarorga kelgan ma’qul. Izlanishning nisbatan ijobiy xulosalariga hamma ham qo’shilmaydi. Jonatan Goodxend, London Universitetida iqtisodiy taraqqiyotdan dars beradi.
"Maslahatim - masalaga chuqurroq qarang. Afg’onistonda urush qanday yo’llar bilan yakun topadi? Tolibon bilan tinchlik muzokaralari qanday tugaydi? Ayni damda bu savollarga javob berish qiyin. Vaholanki, tinchlik va barqarorlik shunga borib taqaladi”, - deydi u.
Siyosiy murosa deganda Afg’oniston ahli va bu davlat homiylariga maqbul bir yechim, reja nazarda tutiladi. Busiz, deydi Jonatan Gudxend, mojaro hali uzoq yillar davom etishi turgan gap.
Muhimi, xalqaro hamjamiyat Afg’onistonni har tomonlama qo’llab-quvvatlashi kerak.
“Ishni oxiriga yetkazish mas’uliyati – NATO, AQSh va Birlashgan Millatlar Tashkiloti bo’ynida”, - deydi kitob muharriri Tobi Doj. “Tolibon hokimiyatdan ketgach, afg’onlarga va’da berib qo’yganmiz axir. Afg’oniston yana terrorizm o’chog’iga aylanmaslik desak, xalqaro hamjamiyat bir yoqadan bosh chiqarishga majbur”.
AQSh va NATO afg’on armiyasini oyoqqa turg’azib berish va’dasida qat’iy. Biroq kelajak afg’onlarning o’z qo’lida, deydi G’arb ahli.
An Afghan boy passes by a bakery in Farah city, west of Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, April 28, 2010. (AP Photo/Reza Shirmohammadi)
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
An Afghan girl who fixes potholes in a road between Kabul and Bagram and depends on tips from passing motorists, waits for vehicles in Afghanistan, Tuesday, July 6, 2010. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
An Afghan woman walks past by a demolished shops in Kabul, Afghanistan on Sunday, June 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan man walks past push carts, right, in Kabul, Afghanistan on Saturday, June 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan man on a donkey rides past U.S. Army Humvee vehicle on a street in Kandahar province south of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, April 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
Afghan kids ride on a horse carriage in Kandahar city, south of Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, April 17, 2010. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
An Afghan customer checks the bottom of a second hand thermos pot in Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, June 19, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
Afghan children who fix potholes in a road between Kabul and Bagram and depend on tips from passing motorists wait for the next vehicle in Afghanistan, Tuesday, July 6, 2010. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
An Afghan man sweeps off the ground at Imam Ali's shrine in Mazar-i-Sharif, Balkh province north of Kabul, Afghanistan on Tuesday, May 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Mustafa Najafizada)
Afghan vendors unload melons from a car at a market in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, June 23, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan man eats a watermelon at a market in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, June 23, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
View from a part of the Kabul city is seen during a sunset in Kabul, Afghanistan on Monday, June 14, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan child who fixes potholes in a road between Kabul and Bagram and depends on tips from passing motorists waits for business in Afghanistan, Tuesday, July 6, 2010. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
A Kuchi nomadic tribal woman helps her family gather their flock of sheep and goats at the end of the day on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, May 26, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
An Afghan man travels on a donkey which is widely used as a beast of burden in the country, in Jalalabad, Afghanistan, Monday, May 24, 2010. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
A taxi loaded with passengers in a trunk, drives by in Kabul, Afghanistan on Monday, May 10, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan man and children arrive to pray at the Mirwaiz Khan Shrine in Arghandab district of Kandahar province south of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, April 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
A burqa-clad Afghan woman walks past posters in Mazar-i-Sharif, Balkh province, north of Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, May 10, 2010. (AP Photo/Mustafa Najafizada)
Women walk at a street market in downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, July 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
Women ask for prices at a street market in downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, July 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
Afghan women buys nail colors displayed for sale in downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, July 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Ahmad Nazar)
Afghan women wait for transportation in downtown Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, July 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Ahmad Nazar)
Afghan day laborers work at a local brick factory on the outskirts of Jalalabad, east of Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, July 15, 2010. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
An Afghan woman stands in front of the Masjid-i Jami mosque in Herat, west of Kabul, Afghanistan, Friday, July 16, 2010. (AP Photo/Reza Shirmohammadi)
A girl prepares to fill a pitcher with water in a communal water pump in Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday, July 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Rodrigo Abd)
An Afghan man pushes his cart, past a refugee camp in Kabul, Afghanistan on Thursday, July 1, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan refugee girl looks out of her tent at a refugee camp in Kabul, Afghanistan on Thursday, July 1, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An ice cream vendor looks for customers at a hilltop in Kabul, Afghanistan, Friday, May 14, 2010. (AP Photo/ Saurabh Das)
An Afghan women arrives at the Kart-e-Sakhi shrine in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, April 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
A couple take a stroll at a hilltop on their day off in Kabul, Afghanistan, Friday, May 14, 2010. (AP Photo/ Saurabh Das)
Pigeons are seen outside the Blue Mosque, Afghanistan's most magnificent and biggest mosque, thought to be the location of the Tomb of Ali, the cousin and son-in-law of the Prophet Mohammed and the fourth Caliph of Islam, in Mazar-i-Sharif north of Kabul
Students find it hard to keep their umbrellas straight against a gust of win as they return after attending classes in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, May 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
A man carries his children on a wheelbarrow at an impoverished neghborhood in Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday, May 11, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
Afghan man poses along with his children, for a picture as local photographer unseen, takes their portrait outside the Blue Mosque, Afghanistan's most magnificent and biggest mosque, thought to be the location of the Tomb of Ali, the cousin and son-in-la
An Afghan girl plays on a swing outside the Kart-e-Sakhi shrine in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, April 12, 2010. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
Caretakers chat after tending to horses and donkeys kept to be sold to draw carriages and play buzkashi in Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, May 16, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
An Afghan couple with their donkey pass in front of a NATO patrol in Balamorghab district of Badghis Province, west of Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, April 21, 2010. (AP Photo/Reza Shirmohammadi)
A Kuchi tribal man displays a six-month-old baby traditionally wrapped up, on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, May 23, 2010. As Afghanistan's population grows, competing claims over summer pastures, both for rainfed cultivation and for grazing
An Afghan burqa clad woman looks on as other along with her son take a nap as they beg for alms on the roadside Pul-e-Khumri in north of Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, April 14, 2010. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
A burqa clad Afghan woman carries a sack on her head in Kabul, Afghanistan, Tuesday, April 27, 2010. (AP Photo/Dar Yasin)
Local residents gather around a hand pump to get potable water in Kabul, Afghanistan on Tuesday, May 11, 2010. Piped potable water reaches less than a quarter of the city's residents. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
** CORRECTS DATE TO MAY 13 **An internally displaced man stands at the doorway of his new mud hut which he is constructing at a camp for the internally displaced in Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, May 13, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
A shepherd takes his flock back home at the end of the day in Kabul, Afghanistan, Saturday, May 15, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
An Afghan child, right, carries a bag to find plastics, wasted paper and cartons to use in place of firewood, as he passes by a booth of a young cobbler in Kabul, Afghanistan on Wednesday, May 26, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
Roadside vendors sell Afghani bread at a market in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, June 7, 2010. (AP Photo/Saurabh Das)
A Kuchi tribal girl peeps from behind her brother on the outskirts of Kabul, Afghanistan, Sunday, May 23, 2010. As Afghanistan's population grows, competing claims over summer pastures, both for rainfed cultivation and for grazing of the settled communiti
An Afghan refugee girl looks at the camera as she stands at the entrance to her tent at a refugee camp in Kabul, Afghanistan on Thursday, July 1, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
Afghan farmers harvest wheat outside Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, June 24, 2010. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
Couples sit together after their wedding ceremony in Mazar-i-Sharif , Afghanistan, Wednesday, June 2, 2010. 110 couples were married in the mass wedding ceremony. (AP Photo/Mustafa Najafizada)
An Afghan man sells sandals in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, June 7, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
An Afghan tea maker prepares tea for a customers on a street in Kabul, Afghanistan on Wednesday, May 26, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
A man works at a brick factory outside Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, June 24, 2010. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
Day laborers wait to be hired in central Kabul, Afghanistan, Thursday, July 1, 2010. (AP Photo/Hossein Fatemi)
An Afghan boy pushes a cart with vegetable at a market, Tuesday, June 29, 2010 in central Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Dusan Vranic)
Two Afghan women walk through a neighborhood in Kabul, Afghanistan, Wednesday, June 30, 2010. (AP Photo/Hossein Fatemi)
An Afghan boy rides his donkey across a flooded plain in Kabul, Afghanistan, on Sunday, July 4, 2010. (AP Photo/Musadeq Sadeq)
Afghan men escort their sheep in a camp for internally displaced people, Sunday, July 18, 2010 in Kabul, Afghanistan. (AP Photo/Rahmat Gul)
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot
Afg'onistondagi bugungi hayot