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Markaziy Osiyo: AQSh siyosati yaqin yillarda qanchalik o'zgarishi mumkin?


Professor Roger Kangas Vashingtondagi Jorjtaun Universitetida ma'ruza qilmoqda, 27-noyabr, 2012
Markaziy Osiyo safaridan qaytgan general Vilyam Freyzer fikricha, hozirda Afg’onistonga noharbiy, lekin o’ta zarur vositalar tashilayotgan Shimoliy Ta’minot Tizimi kelajakda ulkan va zamonaviy savdo yo’llariga aylanib, undan g’arbu-sharq birdek foyda ko’rishi mumkin. Vashingtonda bugun tez-tez quloqqa chalinadigan ta’bir bu.

Lekin ko’plab mutaxassislar, mintaqani uzoq yillardan beri o’rganib, aloqalarni tahlil qilib kelayotgan ekspertlar kelajak haqida ishonch bildirishga shoshmaydi, ayniqsa mintaqaviy hamkorlik va savdo-sarmoyaga kelganda. Qolaversa, Vashingtonning Markaziy Osiyoga nisbatan umumiy siyosatiga...

Davlat departamenti, Pentagon va Oq Uyda kim Markaziy Osiyodan og’iz ochmasin, Yangi Ipak Yo’li degan iborani eshitasiz. Obama ma’muriyati mintaqaga nisbatan yangicha yondashib, shunday tashabbus bilan chiqqan, deydi rasmiylar.

Aslida esa Buyuk Ipak Yo’lini yangilash, qayta tiklash haqida azaldan og’iz ko’pirtirib kelishadi, ham g’arbda, ham sharqda. Qanday konkret qadamlar tashlandi deb so’rasangiz, qator loyihalar, transport va savdoni rivojlantirishni ko’zlovchi xalqaro proyektlar ishga solindi deb javob berishadi.

Lekin Rojer Kangas (Roger Kangas) singari olimlar fikricha buning o’zi yetmaydi. Tashabbus bo’lgani yaxshi, deydi u, lekin bu tashabbus amalga oshirilsa, undan-da yaxshi. Oshirilmasa, uni siyosat yoki strategiya deb atash xato.

Professor Kangas AQSh harbiy oliygohlarida faoliyat yuritib kelayotgan tahlilchi. Hukumat va nohukumat tashkilotlarga region yuzasidan maslahat berib keladi. O’zbekiston va boshqa respublikalarga muntazam ravishda safar qilib, tadqiqot ishlari olib boradi va hukumatlar bilan aloqalari yaxshi. Professor harbiy tizimlarni isloh qilish va ta’lim borasida ko’mak ko’rsatib kelayotganini aytadi.

Yaqinda Vashingtondagi Jorjtaun Universitetida qilgan ma’ruzasida Roger Kangas Amerikaning mintaqadagi asosiy maqsadlarini beshga bo’ldi: xavfsizlikni ta’ minlash, iqtisodiy hamkorlik, energetika sohasini rivojlantirish, inson huquqlari targ’iboti va demokratik islohotlarni olg’a surish.

Amerika mintaqadagi mustaqil davlatlarni tan olib, aloqa o’rnatganidan beri bu maqsadlar o’zgarmagan va o’zgarmaydi ham, deydi Rojer Kangas. Ammo ularga nisbatan e’tibor darajasi turlicha. Masalan hozir asosiy diqqat Afg’onistonda, ya’ni xavfsizlik sohasida.

1991-1995- yillarda, deya tushuntiradi olim, Amerika mintaqa bilan aloqada Rossiyani ustun qo’ygan. Har bir qaror Rossiya xohish-istagidan kelib chiqqan holda qilingan. Maqsad Moskvani norozi qilib qo’ymaslik bo’lgan.

1995-2001-yillarda esa energetika sohasiga e’tibor oshdi. Yangi quvurlar ustida gap ketdi. Tabiiy jihatdan boy mintaqaga, ayniqsa Qozog’istonga Amerika kompaniyalari kirib keldi.

2001-yilning 11-sentabridan keyin esa Markaziy Osiyo Amerika nazarida strategik jihatdan muhim mintaqaga aylandi. Hamkorlik Afg’onistondagi harbiy harakatlarga asoslandi.

2009-yilda Barak Obama prezidentlikka kelgach ko’p narsa o’zgarmadi, e’tibor hamon urushda va uni yakunlashda Markaziy Osiyo mamlakatlari qanday rol o’ynashida, ular berayotgan ko’makda.

Aytish joiz, 2005-yildan keyin Amerikaning O’zbekiston bilan aloqalari sovuqlashib, Obama davrigacha salbiy edi. Islom Karimov ma’muriyati repressiv tuzum deya atalib, Kongress tomonidan qator cheklovlar qo’yilgan, hamkorlik bag’oyat susaygan davr edi.

Bugun unday emas. Amerika O’zbekistonni ishonchli hamkor deb ataydi. Ayrim cheklovlar olib tashlandi. Lekin inson huquqlari va demokratiya hamon nozik masalalar.

Xalqaro tashkilotlar Vashingtonni bu borada tanqidni pasaytirganlikda, vaziyatga ko’z yumayotganlikda ayblasa, Obama ma’muriyati barcha masalalar ochiq muhokamada ekanini aytadi.

Rojer Kangas fikricha G’arb Markaziy Osiyo u tomon yo’naladi deb kutgan edi. Bunday bo’lmadi. Lekin mintaqa sharq tomon ham yo’nalmadi. Rahbarlar har ikki tomondan o’ziga zarur saboq va yordamni olib, hokimiyatni boy bermaslikka harakat qilmoqda. Professor mintaqada yaqin yillarda olamshumul o’zgarishlar kutmaydi.

Rossiya, Xitoy, Eron va Hindiston singari yaqin va yirik davlatlar rolini ham unutmaslik kerak. Markaziy Osiyoning besh respublikasi bugun o'ziga xos xalqaro rishtalar va milliy manfaatlarga ega.

Amerika 2014-yil oxirigacha Afg’onistondan chiqib ketishga bel bog’lagan. Mintaqadagi hamma davlatlar chegara xavfsizligi va jangarilarga qarshi kurashni hamon birinchi o’ringa qo’yadi, deydi Rojer Kangas. AQShdan shu sohada yordam olish ilinjida. Shuningdek, energetik va iqtisodiy hamkorlik, ayniqsa sarmoya ko’lami oshadi degan bor.

Moliyaviy yetishmovchilik davri ekan, Vashington ko’p va’da bera olmaydi. Lekin, deydi Rojer Kangas, ta’lim va taraqqiyot dasturlari (turli sohalarda treyninglar, inson huquqlari va demokratiyani targ’ib qiluvchi tashabbuslar) uchun mablag’ ajratishda davom etmoq zarur. Bular xalqlarni bir-biriga yaqinlashtiruvchi loyihalar, deydi u.

Ikki tomonlama muloqotga zo’r berilmoqda, bu albatta yaxshi, deydi professor Kangas, ammo dialog siyosat emas.

O’zgarmas maqsadlarni yodda tutgan holda, konkret rejalar tuzilishi kerak. Ularni amalga oshirish uchun kimdan nima zarurligi ochiq tan olinib, real qadamlar tashlanishi kerak.

AQSh - Markaziy Osiyo, professor Rojer Kangas/Navbahor Imamova
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US Policy in Central Asia, Roger Kangas speaks in Georgetown, Washington, 11-27-12
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    Navbahor Imamova

    Navbahor Imamova "Amerika Manzaralari" turkumidagi ilk teledasturlar muallifi. TV, radio va onlayn diktor, prodyuser, muxbir va muharrir. O'zbekistonda akkreditatsiyadan o'tgan, ya'ni respublikadan turib axborot berish imkoniyatiga yagona amerikalik jurnalist. "Amerika Ovozi"da 2002-yildan beri ishlaydi. Jurnalistik faoliyatini 1996-yilda O'zbekiston radiosining "Xalqaro hayot" redaksiyasida boshlagan. Jahon Tillar Universiteti Xalqaro jurnalistika fakultetida dars bergan. Ommaviy axborot vositalari bo'yicha bakalavrlikni Hindistonning Maysur Universitetidan (University of Mysore), magistrlikni esa AQShning Bol Davlat Universitetidan (Ball State University) olgan. Shuningdek, Garvard Universitetidan (Harvard University) davlat boshqaruvi va liderlik bo'yicha magistrlik diplomiga ega. Toshkent viloyati Bo'stonliq tumani Qo'shqo'rg'on qishlog'ida ziyoli oilasida ulg'aygan.

    Navbahor Imamova is a prominent Uzbek journalist at the Voice of America. As anchor, reporter, editor, web editor, and producer, she has covered Central Asia and America for nearly 20 years on TV, radio and online. For the last year, she has also been reporting from inside Uzbekistan as the only and first-ever accredited U.S.-based journalist. Navbahor is also the founding President of the VOA Women’s Caucus. Educated in Uzbekistan, India, and at Harvard University, she was a 2016-17 Edward S. Mason Fellow at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, where she also earned her Masters in Public Administration. Navbahor played a pivotal role in the launch of Uzbek television programming at VOA in 2003 and has since presented more than 800 editions of the flagship weekly show “Exploring America,” which covers American foreign policy for some 40 million Uzbek speakers worldwide, focusing on U.S. relations with Central Asia and life and politics in the United States. She has co-hosted VOA-wide special broadcasts for a global audience. She has received multiple awards for excellence in broadcasting, including the VOA Gold Medal in 2010. As a multimedia journalist, with millions of viewers, listeners, followers, and fans, Navbahor writes and speaks frequently on Uzbek domestic politics, foreign policy, and society, as well as regional issues in Central Asia, for policy, academic, and popular audiences. Her essays have appeared in leading journals, including Foreign Policy, The National Interest, and The Diplomat, and she has lectured at institutions including the U.S. Foreign Service Institute, Columbia University, Johns Hopkins University, Georgetown University, and George Washington University. Navbahor began her career at the Uzbek state broadcaster as a reporter and producer. She taught journalism at her alma mater, the Uzbek State University of World Languages in Tashkent, and then earned a B.A. in journalism and mass communication from Maharaja’s College at the University of Mysore in India. A recipient of the Edmund Muskie Fellowship, she earned her MA in journalism from Ball State University. In 2009, Ball State’s journalism department named her an Outstanding Young Alumna.

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